A classified report by the US Intel: Iran’s Nuclear Program Survived Strikes, Setback Temporary. Contrary to the triumphant tone set by the Trump administration, a preliminary US intelligence assessment indicates that the June 21 airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities caused moderate but not crippling damage to Tehran’s nuclear capabilities.
The report, compiled by the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) and based on battle damage analysis from US Central Command, suggests that Iran’s underground enrichment infrastructure and enriched uranium stockpile survived largely intact, resulting in only a three-to-six-month setback to Iran’s nuclear program.
US Intel: Iran’s Nuclear Program Survived Strikes, Setback Temporary
DIA Report Contradicts Trump’s Claims of “Total Obliteration”
President Donald Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth have repeatedly described the strikes as a sweeping success.
Trump called them “one of the most successful military strikes in history,” while Hegseth stated they had “obliterated Iran’s ability to create nuclear weapons.”
But the DIA’s classified five-page preliminary assessment paints a far less decisive picture.
The report says that although entrances to Fordow and Natanz were sealed and aboveground infrastructure at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan was seriously damaged, the underground centrifuge halls remain structurally sound.
According to officials briefed on the report, enriched uranium was likely moved out prior to the strike, and most centrifuges remain intact.
“The US set them back maybe a few months, tops,” said one source familiar with the classified findings.
Bunker-Buster Bombs Hit Their Mark But Not Deep Enough
The strikes involved more than a dozen 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs dropped by B-2 bombers on Fordow and Natanz, designed to target deeply buried facilities.
Yet despite the massive payloads, the DIA found that multiple waves over several days would have been required to fully collapse Iran’s reinforced underground sites.
At Isfahan, the US used Tomahawk missiles rather than bunker-busters, further suggesting that planners recognized the limits of their munitions against deeply buried targets.
“These facilities could serve as the basis for the rapid reconstitution of Iran’s nuclear program,” said Jeffrey Lewis, nuclear expert at the Middlebury Institute, after analyzing satellite imagery of the sites.
White House Dismisses Intelligence Report, Blames Political Motives
The Trump administration swiftly denied the DIA’s conclusions. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt dismissed the report as “flat-out wrong,” criticizing the leak as a “politically motivated” attempt to undermine the president and military success.
“Everyone knows what happens when you drop fourteen 30,000-pound bombs on their targets: total obliteration,” Leavitt said, defending the administration’s narrative.
President Trump, currently attending the NATO summit in The Hague, echoed this sentiment on Truth Social, saying: “The nuclear sites in Iran are completely destroyed!”
Mixed Messages: Pentagon vs. Intelligence Community
While Hegseth and Trump have maintained bold declarations of victory, General Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, struck a more cautious note.
“It’s way too early to determine how much of Iran’s nuclear program remains,” he said Sunday, noting that further assessments are still ongoing.
Likewise, Rep. Michael McCaul, Republican foreign affairs veteran, acknowledged that the goal was never to completely eliminate Iran’s nuclear program but rather to disrupt and delay it.
Congressional Briefings Abruptly Postponed
Classified briefings intended to inform House and Senate lawmakers of the strike’s effectiveness were suddenly postponed earlier this week. Senators are now scheduled for Thursday, House members on Friday.
The unexplained delays have sparked speculation, especially as questions grow about the true extent of the strike’s impact.
Lawmakers are expected to press for clarity on the effectiveness, strategy, and messaging around the operation.
CIA Also Weighs In: Damage Significant But Not Fatal
CIA Director John Ratcliffe released a statement claiming “credible intelligence” showed severe damage to several key Iranian nuclear sites.
According to Ratcliffe, the rebuilding of these facilities could take “years,” though this assessment appears more optimistic than the DIA’s analysis.
The White House insists that there was no intelligence suggesting Iran moved enriched uranium prior to the attack.
However, multiple sources claim that up to 400 kilograms (880 pounds) of uranium may now be hidden across undisclosed locations within Iran.
Israeli Assessment: Damage Yes, Destruction No
Israeli officials who coordinated closely with the US in the operation confirmed that Fordow suffered less damage than expected, while Natanz experienced the most destruction of the three sites.
However, Israel had already claimed that its own pre-strike efforts had set Iran’s program back two years, casting doubt on the additional impact of the US airstrikes.
Israel also believes Iran has covert enrichment facilities still operational, further limiting the strategic blow dealt by the US-led attack.
Could Iran Still Build a Bomb?
Prior to the strikes, US intelligence estimated Iran was three months away from developing a nuclear weapon if it made that decision.
The recent assessment suggests this timeline has been extended by only several months, but Iran retains the material and infrastructure necessary to resume nuclear development.
Experts warn that while Iran may not be able to produce a sophisticated miniaturized warhead anytime soon, a crude bomb is still within reach if the country chooses to accelerate efforts.
Battle Damage Assessments Still Underway
Brian Carter, Middle East Portfolio Manager at the American Enterprise Institute, said the bombing campaign caused “severe surface-level destruction,” including damaged electrical systems and blocked access points. Still, the core nuclear infrastructure is likely intact.
“You can have a plan that works perfectly and still not achieve the full objective. That’s why battle damage assessments are essential,” said General Joseph Votel, former commander of US Central Command.
Fallout From the Leak: FBI Investigation Underway
The leak of the top-secret DIA report has triggered a federal investigation, with both the FBI and Department of Defense working to determine the source.
Secretary Hegseth described the report as “preliminary and low confidence” and attributed the leak to political motives aimed at undermining President Trump.
Ceasefire Holding But Concerns Linger
Following the 12-day flare-up between Israel and Iran, a US-brokered ceasefire is holding. Trump has taken credit for the truce, tying it directly to the “success” of the airstrikes.
However, experts caution that Iran’s nuclear ambitions remain very much alive, especially given the preserved underground infrastructure and potential secret facilities.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that it had lost oversight of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile once the hostilities began.
Director-General Rafael Grossi said, “I don’t want to give the impression that it’s been lost or hidden,” but emphasized that visibility had indeed been compromised.
Strategic and Diplomatic Consequences
This operation has far-reaching geopolitical and strategic consequences. With much of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure surviving and critical materials potentially hidden, the international community faces a renewed challenge in enforcing non-proliferation norms.
Whether Tehran chooses to retaliate, rebuild, or escalate remains to be seen.
For now, the global community must focus on monitoring, diplomacy, and renewed engagement with international watchdogs like the IAEA.
Conclusion: Tactical Success, Strategic Uncertainty
While the operation demonstrated the precision and reach of US military capabilities, early intelligence reveals a disconnect between public claims and classified reality. The Iranian nuclear threat has not been eliminated only delayed.
As new assessments emerge and briefings are held, the pressure is now on US officials to align rhetoric with reality and ensure that diplomatic tools follow military ones in the long fight against nuclear proliferation.
Also Read: Netanyahu: Iran’s Nuclear Program Like a “Cancer,” Vows Israel Will “Cut It Out” with U.S. Support
