Trump Confirms Rare Earths Deal with China, Signals “Very Big” India Trade Agreement Ahead

In a major development that could redefine global trade alliances, Trump Confirms Rare Earths Deal with China, Signals “Very Big” India Trade Agreement Ahead. US President Donald Trump announced on Thursday that the United States has signed a rare earth export deal with China and is in advanced discussions with India for a “very big” trade agreement. Speaking at the “Big Beautiful Bill” event at the White House, Trump emphasized that new trade avenues are opening, and India may be the next major partner in Washington’s selective global economic strategy.

Trump Confirms Rare Earths Deal with China, Signals “Very Big” India Trade Agreement Ahead

Rare Earths Deal with China: A Crucial Breakthrough

Amid months of escalating trade tensions and supply chain disruptions, the US-China deal comes as a relief for industries dependent on rare earth minerals critical components in electronics, electric vehicles, and defense manufacturing.

A White House official confirmed that the agreement is intended to expedite rare earth shipments to the US, a move that comes after China’s earlier export restrictions rocked the global supply chain. These minerals are vital to sectors such as:

• Semiconductors
• Aerospace
• Defense systems
• Electric mobility

US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed, “They’re going to deliver rare earths to us. Once they do that, we’ll take down our countermeasures.”

Implementation of the Geneva Agreement

The rare earth pact is part of a broader framework developed during trade talks in Geneva in May, where China agreed to lift non-tariff barriers imposed since April 2024. The understanding reached now aims to implement and enforce that Geneva Agreement.

According to trade officials, the framework includes:

• Removal of export curbs on critical minerals
• Faster licensing processes for US-bound shipments
• Measures to prevent dual-use exports for military applications

Industry insiders revealed that China had been vetting rare earth buyers to ensure shipments were not diverted to US military contractors, which had delayed approvals.

China Trade Deal Calms Global Markets

The deal has already sparked optimism in global markets, especially after Trump declared on Truth Social, “Our deal with China is done.”

He elaborated that China had agreed to supply “full magnets and any necessary rare earths… up front,” following the Geneva roadmap.

This trade truce marks a significant de-escalation after a long stretch of tariff wars and retaliatory measures that had virtually halted bilateral trade between the world’s two largest economies.

In early June, China had granted temporary export licenses to rare-earth suppliers of leading US automakers, signaling a compromise was in the works.

India in Focus: Trump Teases “Very Big” Trade Deal

Shifting focus to the subcontinent, President Trump strongly hinted that a “very big” trade deal with India may be next in line.

At the White House event, Trump said:
“We just signed with China yesterday. We’re having some great deals. We have one coming up, maybe with India very big one. We’re going to open up India.” This follows weeks of intensive trade negotiations between the two democracies, which concluded with a four-day session in New Delhi on June 10.

A Selective Trade Strategy: Not Everyone Gets a Deal

While praising the China and India talks, Trump reiterated that the US won’t be cutting deals with just any country.

“We’re not going to make deals with everybody. Some, we are just going to send them a letter say thank you very much. You are to pay 25, 35, 45 per cent tariffs. That’s the easy way. But my people want to make more deals than I would do,” he remarked.

This approach underscores the Trump administration’s strategy of prioritizing quality over quantity in international trade relations choosing impactful, mutually beneficial partnerships rather than broad-spectrum agreements.

India-US Trade Talks: A Path to $500 Billion in Annual Trade

The recent India-US negotiations, led by Rajesh Agrawal from the Indian Ministry of Commerce and the US Trade Representative’s office, aimed to chart a path to increasing bilateral trade from $190 billion to $500 billion by 2030.

Key focus areas include:

• Tariff reductions on industrial and agricultural goods
• Non-tariff barrier elimination in sectors like pharma and electronics
• Technology transfer agreements
• Digital trade frameworks

Both sides are working toward a balanced, equitable deal that strengthens strategic ties and economic resilience.

Goyal Confirms Progress on “Fair and Balanced” Pact

Union Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal confirmed that India and the US are in active talks to finalize a mutually beneficial trade agreement.

Speaking at a press briefing, Goyal stated:
“Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Trump met in February 2025. Both leaders agreed to enter a bilateral trade agreement that is fair and equitable. We’re working toward a balanced agreement to promote business and create new economic opportunities.”

He described the two nations as “close friends, allies, and strategic partners,” emphasizing that the upcoming deal would further deepen cooperation on global economic issues.

Howard Lutnick: “Very Optimistic” About India-US Deal

US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick echoed Goyal’s sentiments, saying he expects the India-US trade deal to be finalized soon.

“You should expect a deal between the United States and India in the not-too-distant future, because we’ve found a place that works for both countries.

I’m very optimistic,” Lutnick said during the US-India Strategic Partnership Forum. His remarks add weight to speculation that an official announcement may be just weeks away.

Key Industries Poised to Benefit from India-US Trade Pact

Should the deal go through, several sectors in both countries are expected to gain:

For India:

• Textiles and auto parts: Greater access to US markets
• Pharmaceuticals and IT services: Regulatory clarity and reduced compliance burdens
• Agricultural exports: Potential growth through better pricing and lower duties

For the US:

• Agriculture: Boost in exports of dairy, nuts, and apples
• Manufacturing: Eased entry for machinery and medical equipment
• Technology: Opportunities to scale digital infrastructure and data services in India

Timing and Political Significance

With US elections approaching and India pushing for more foreign investment, both nations are eyeing the strategic and political capital such a deal can generate.

Trump’s emphasis on trade successes signals a campaign effort to showcase economic leadership, while for PM Modi, a major deal with the US strengthens his government’s pro-globalization narrative.

Conclusion: A New Era of Trade Diplomacy?

The rare earths deal with China is already reshaping supply chains and easing tensions. But if the “very big” trade deal with India materializes, it could be a gamechanger in global economics.

With both countries signaling readiness and optimism, the next few weeks will be critical. Whether it’s rare earths from China or data exchange protocols with India, Trump’s selective deal-making strategy appears to be gaining traction.

And if the US and India do indeed finalize a trade pact soon, it would not only enhance bilateral economic prosperity, but also cement their roles as central actors in the evolving landscape of global commerce.

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